Israel and Hamas have finally reached a staged ceasefire agreement, and according to news reports, this occurred only because of the enormous pressure exerted on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the incoming President of the United States, Donald Trump. There are, of course, echoes of the 1981 release of American diplomatic hostages by Iran when President Ronald Reagan took office, highlighting in each case, the perceived weakness of a Democratic president and administration. President Joe Biden, it appears, was neither able nor willing to exert significant pressure on Israel to halt the war. At the same time, Hamas was incentivised to agree to a ceasefire only after Israel’s defeat of its allies within Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance — namely Hezbollah — and the growing influence of less radical states such as Turkey and Qatar.
The agreement outlines a phased process, beginning with the release of 33 of the 100 hostages over the first six weeks. In the subsequent phase, the remaining hostages will be released, and in the final stage, the bodies of the deceased will be returned. In exchange, Israel has agreed to release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, return the remains of Hamas fighters, and withdraw militarily from Gaza. Additionally, Israel will facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and support its reconstruction efforts.
However, the agreement is fraught with potential pitfalls and could collapse at any stage. Hamas may claim a pyrrhic victory simply by surviving, thereby undermining Netanyahu’s stated goal of eradicating the movement and achieving total victory. Such a perception of Hamas’s resilience could destabilise the right-wing coalition that keeps Netanyahu in power. If this happens, Israel may resume fighting before the agreement is fully implemented. To prevent such a scenario, President Trump will need to remain actively involved in the peace process, pressuring Israel to engage in negotiations with the Palestinians while mobilising regional allies such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt. These countries can play a critical role in rebuilding Palestinian governance structures and the devastated infrastructure in Gaza.
The main obstacle to lasting peace remains Israel’s right-wing parties, including Netanyahu himself, who remain resistant to the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. Yet, the creation of such a state is precisely what is required to stabilise the region and pave the way for long-term prosperity and development. There are, however, emerging signs of hope.
The broader region of West Asia is currently at a significant inflection point. Iran and its anti-Western and anti-Israel allies have been decisively weakened, thanks largely to Israel’s military successes and the continued support it has received from the United States. As a result, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has collapsed, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have suffered major defeats, and Iran’s allied militias in Iraq and Yemen have been significantly weakened. Iran now finds itself in a precarious position — both militarily and economically. In Beirut and Damascus, new governments have emerged that are not beholden to Iran and are instead focused on domestic political reform and economic development. Saudi Arabia has played a crucial role in supporting these transformations in both Syria and Lebanon, raising hopes that it could take on a similar role in the Palestinian territories.
However, for this to materialise, the Saudis are demanding iron-clad guarantees for the creation of a viable Palestinian state, based on the principles of the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. In return, and in pursuit of a mutual defence treaty with the US, Saudi Arabia is willing to normalise relations with Israel. This potential normalisation represents a significant opportunity for regional stability but hinges entirely on Israel’s willingness to make meaningful concessions to the Palestinians.
Important developments within both Israel and the US could also lead to positive outcomes. Polls indicate that an overwhelming majority of Israelis — between 70 and 80 per cent — are primarily concerned with the fate of the hostages. Many believe Netanyahu’s government abandoned them for short-term political gains. Further, the investigation into the failure of his government to prevent Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, could ultimately seal his political fate, despite Israel’s recent military victories in Lebanon and against Iran. The Israeli public appears to be growing increasingly disillusioned with Netanyahu’s leadership, potentially paving the way for a more centrist government that is open to negotiations. Once the acute trauma of October 7 recedes, there may be greater receptivity to finding a compromise with the Palestinians — particularly if the US applies diplomatic pressure in this direction.
President Trump’s return to the White House represents another major shift. While Trump is known for his strong support of Israel, he is also highly motivated by his personal legacy and America’s national interests. On a personal level, Trump has long desired a Nobel Prize, an honour awarded to his predecessor, Barack Obama. His ambition to surpass or match Obama may drive him to push Israel toward significant concessions in pursuit of a historic peace deal. Trump has also remained committed to achieving the so-called “Deal of the Century”, aimed at resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict and fully integrating America’s allies in the region through normalisation agreements between Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf states.
The Saudis, as reflected in a recent article by prominent journalist Abdulrahman al-Rashid, are eager for the stability such a regional arrangement could bring. They even believe that Iran, having been militarily weakened, might be persuaded to adopt more pragmatic policies in favour of stability and development rather than resistance and warfare.
In conclusion, West Asia is undergoing profound structural changes, and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is a clear indication of this transformation. While it remains impossible to predict with certainty whether a more stable regional order will emerge, there are several reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Achieving lasting peace, however, will require significant investment of time and effort from the new US administration, as well as from regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Most importantly, Israel must recognise that without addressing the Palestinian right to self-determination, the region will continue to experience cycles of violence driven by extremists who thrive on disorder and conflict.
Ultimately, while the ceasefire represents a temporary reprieve, the true test lies in whether all parties involved can seize this opportunity to pursue a more lasting and just resolution to the conflict.
Bernard Haykel, The writer is professor, Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University
